Gower Street Analytics has revised its 2025 Global box office projection to $34.1 billion.
The announcement comes as the global industry gathers in Las Vegas for CinemaCon, the official convention of Cinema United (formerly The National Association of Theatre Owners), which runs March 31-April 4.
The revision is an increase on Gower Street’s original 2025 projection of $33.0 billion published in December 2024.
A $34.1 billion Global box office in 2024 would represent an approximate +13% increase year-on-year (a +10% increase at current exchange rates) from 2024, and a marginal +0.5% increase from 2023 (+3% at current exchange rates). The 2024 revised estimate is -13% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current exchange rates.
The main driver of the adjustment comes from Q1 actuals, specifically the over-performance of China thanks to the animated phenomenon NE ZHA 2 (now the 5th highest-grossing film of all-time globally). China’s 2025 projection has been revised up by $1 billion to $7.6 billion from our original estimate thanks to NE ZHA 2. This revised estimate would see China finish +30% ahead of 2024 (+29% at current exchange rates). It would still be -1% behind 2023, though this would adjust to a +1% increase at current exchange rates. It would remain -6% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current exchange rates.
The estimate for the Domestic market has been revised down slightly from $9.7 billion to $9.5 billion. Although Q1 performed within our expected range the lack of break-out hits so far in 2025 resulted in this modest reduction. A $9.5 billion 2025 result would represent an +8% increase on 2024; a +5% increase on 2023; but a -17% deficit against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019).
The projection for the International market (excluding China) sees a marginal increase of approximately $200 million, from $16.8 billion to $17.0 billion. Due to recovering international exchange rates against the US dollar this growth could have gone up by approximately +$500 million, however marginally lower than predicted results in Q1 led to a performance-based reduction for the year of around -$300 million. The new $17.0 billion projection represents a +10% increase on 2024 (+5% at current exchange rates); a -1% decrease against 2023 (+2% increase at current exchange rates); and is -14% behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current exchange rates.
This projection, calculated utilizing data from Gower Street’s flagship FORECAST service and analyst assessment, is based on the current release calendar.
Please note: Figures shown in the stacked bar graph show US$ figures at historical exchange rates for years prior to 2025 and at current exchange rates for the Forecast year (2025). Percentage comparisons for 2025 against pre-pandemic years in the text are based on like-for-like local currency numbers converted at current exchange rates for greater accuracy.
