The first month of 2025 is gone, even Chinese New Year (CNY) is behind us. The year of the wood snake represents growth, and January gave a glimpse of it. January generated a global box office of $2.8 billion. That is +32% up on January last year and -12% below the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019).
These comparisons are a bit inflated by the extremely lucrative Chinese New Year (CNY) falling mostly in February in the comparable periods, but partly in January this year. Still the international sub-regions Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and Latin America also managed to record their highest grossing Januarys since 2020.
On this month’s Global Box Office Tracker (GBOT, above), the stacked bar graph on the left shows total box office levels split out by the three key global markets: Domestic, China and International (excluding China). The pie chart indicates the current deficit compared to the average of the three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) and where those losses are currently coming from. The bar graph on the bottom right displays the percentage drops globally.
Top Titles
The defining titles of January were, as often in this period, holdover hits from the holiday season.
Disney’s MUFASA: THE LION KING was the highest grossing global release in January, adding approximately $274 million for a cume of $640 million at the end of the month. It’s already the #7 globally released title in 2024. As it’s still holding strong it will get near Warner’s DUNE: PART 2 ($715m) at #6.
The second highest-grossing title in January was Paramount’s SONIC THE HEDGHOG 3. This instalment generated approximately $214 million within the month for a franchise-best cume of $455 million. It’s currently the #11 globally released title in 2024. SONIC 3 will very likely surpass VENOM: THE LAST DANCE ($479m) at the end of its run to get to #10.
In its third month in release Disney’s MOANA 2 added a further $128 million for an impressive total of $1.03 billion. It has already surpassed FINDING DORY ($1.03bn) and will end around TOY STORY 3 & 4 (both $1.07bn), which are the #7 & #8 animated titles of all time.
Universal’s NOSFERATU earned a fabulous $118 million in January for a $170 million cume. NOSFERATU has already exceeded the lifetime results of director Robert Eggers’ own THE NORTHMAN ($70m) and other January horror hits like the 2022 SCREAM ($142m), SCREAM VI (171m) and INSIDIOUS: THE LAST KEY ($168m). It will end a bit above 2022 break out M3GAN ($180m).
Chinese New Year
The outstanding market in January was of course China with a share of 31% of the global box office total. None of the aforementioned titles were causing that. CNY – historically the most lucrative theatrical week of the Chinese calendar – pushed this January to the 8th highest monthly result since 2019 and the 2nd best of the past 12, just behind CNY February last year ($1.55bn). The three days of CNY that fell into January contributed 70% of the month’s $872 million total. The first of the three January CNY days achieved the highest single day box office the market has ever reached! After having a challenging period in the marketplace since last CNY and missing the big break out blockbusters, this CNY offered multiple new entries of the country’s biggest franchises.
The #1 title is NE ZHA 2, the sequel to the highest-grossing Chinese animated title of all time ($724m) from 2019. It grossed $217 million in just three days and has a very good chance to end as highest grossing movie in China of all time, beating current #1 THE BATTLE OF LAKE CHANGJIN ($887m) from 2021
At #2 of the January box office DETECTIVE CHINATOWN 1900 generated $167 million in three days. It’s the fourth instalment of the very successful action-comedy franchise, which third part recorded the highest opening weekend of all time during 2021’s CNY with $396 million.
The third big CNY release was CREATION OF THE GODS II: DEMON FORCE contributing $101 million to the January box office. It’s the sequel to the very successful action fantasy from 2023, which had a lifetime result of $364 million.
The whole CNY annual holiday period (Jan. 29 to Feb. 4) finished at an all time best with $1.3 billion, ahead of the prior record set in 2021 (+11%). This is an encouraging sign for the market. It still needs to be seen how the Chinese market behaves outside of CNY, which was also the last flourishing period in 2024.
International vs Domestic
The International box office (excluding China) grossed $1.4 billion in January. It was down modestly (-18%) on the pre-pandemic average for the month. That is the same level that the whole year 2024 achieved. Compared to January last year the month was up +11% and slightly down (-3%) against 2023.
The Domestic market opened the year on the low end in global comparison. The January box office of $552 million was -40% below the three-year benchmark, the widest gap among all tracked top 15 markets. A step down from the -23% for the year 2024. It was also the fourth lowest monthly box office of the past 12 months.At least the market was up +6% on January last year, but -7% down on the period in 2023.
For only the fifth time in the past 28 months no title grossed more than $100 million within January. In contrast 8 titles grossed more than $30 million, the highest number since December 2023.
MUFASA: THE LION KING was the #1 title in January nearly getting to $100 million with a monthly total of $97 million. SONIC THE HEDGEHOG followed at #2 with $76 million, MOANA 2 added $48 million, while NOSFERATU generated $46 million in the Domestic market.
Outlook
January was a promising start for 2025. The holdover driven market delivered the predicted modest growth. Local and international movies filled the gap of missing global Hollywood wide releases, aiding best performances in non-English language International markets compared to the Domestic and the other Anglo-American markets.
2025 will take some time until the bigger global US-tentpoles arrive in a higher frequency. February offers the first major release of the year – CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD.
